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    Storm Prediction Center
    SPC Forecast Products
    • No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 24 12:59:01 UTC 2026.
    • No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 24 12:59:01 UTC 2026.
    • SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      Day 1 Outlook Image
      Day 1 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      0755 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
      
      Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
      
      ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
      THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
      
      ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
      UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
      
      ...SUMMARY...
      Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this
      afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
      a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
      perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible.
      
      ...Central/Southern High Plains...
      Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
      Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present
      this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
      develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across
      northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided
      by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should
      eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong
      mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough
      over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High
      Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from
      south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where
      buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather
      strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support
      the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large
      hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level
      curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this
      region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving
      MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern
      CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.
      
      Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
      southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
      bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
      severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
      also occur.
      
      ...Upper Midwest...
      A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and
      vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper
      Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is
      prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating
      to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up
      to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating
      along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for
      scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with
      moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for
      updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose
      a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread
      east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
      eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario
      occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a
      corresponding Slight Risk.
      
      ...Great Basin/Four Corners...
      Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
      the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
      low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
      the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
      east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great
      Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with
      strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak
      instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in
      northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for
      strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and
      early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds
      across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to
      have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and
      scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage.
      
      ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
      Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
      northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm
      advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be
      acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track
      southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along
      and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual
      re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer
      flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail
      and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but
      the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain.
      Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may
      form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA
      in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the
      troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward
      extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could
      pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards
      the central Gulf Coast through the early evening.
      
      ...Florida...
      Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
      the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints
      in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped
      across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
      cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
      the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
      afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
      expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic
      Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given
      steepened low-level lapse rates.
      
      ..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/24/2026
      
      
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    • Day 4-8 Outlook
      Day 4-8 Outlook Image
      Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
      
      Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
      
      ...DISCUSSION...
      ...D4/Saturday - Northern Plains...
      A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday
      with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the
      northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming
      into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect
      low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong
      instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There
      is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level
      trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the
      severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the
      15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely
      Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in
      future outlooks.
      
      ...Day 5 and Beyond...
      Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern
      Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However,
      predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe.
      The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large
      region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary
      trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather
      potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas
      cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
      
      
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