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Tornadoes are fast-moving and unpredictable

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Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 13 10:27:01 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 13 10:27:02 UTC 2026.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Oct 13 10:27:02 UTC 2026

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 13 10:27:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Oct 13, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over SK/MB Thursday morning is forecast to
undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great
Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an
upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while
accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a
poleward-advancing warm front from central or eastern KS through the
mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trailing
cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains and
into the lower-MS Valley.


...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from
portions of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley within a zone
of warm-air and moisture advection preceding the surface low. A
subset of the early-day storms may persist through the day with
associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant air
mass destabilization in those areas. Where cloud breaks can occur,
stronger diabatic heating coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s may contribute to a corridor of moderate
instability by afternoon, which would become a preferred zone of
diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development.  

Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are forecast to steadily
strengthen from Thursday afternoon through night, leading to the
potential for a fast-moving complex of storms to traverse the region
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

SPC Oct 13, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday...

An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off
the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is
forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New
England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of
the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass
is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with
thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear
is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for
isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be
required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.


...Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday...

A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist
at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible
in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there
is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the
western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High
Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over
the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is
expected through that time frame.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low traversing the Intermountain West will induce
strong southwesterly flow aloft from the southern Rockies into the
central Great Plains and Upper Midwest today. On the backside of the
low, northerly flow will overspread northern CA this afternoon,
resulting in sustained northerly surface winds of less than 15 mph
and 15-20% RH across the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent
terrain. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in
these areas where pockets of dry fuels may exist.

Farther east, established upper-level ridging over the western Gulf
Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley will maintain a relatively
dry airmass amid drying fuels. Concurrently, a surface frontal
system will progress southward across the central Plains and
Midwest, bringing chances for precipitation. Coupled with lingering
chances for rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across portions
of the West, widespread fire weather concerns will continue to be
reduced across much of the CONUS.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...